IndiGo arrives in Port Blair, its 41st destination

In a first, IndiGo goes beyond the mainland India in ten years of its 'domestic' operations. The airline launches Port Blair as its 41st destinations which is also its 36th station in India. In a typical IndiGo way, it is adding multiple frequencies and at least two non-stop destinations from the new station. Daily Delhi-Port Blair flight via Kolkata from today and daily Hyderabad-Port Blair flight via Chennai from 30 September are being introduced. Interestingly the Tata Singapore Airlines joint venture full service carrier Vistara too is scheduled to launch Delhi-Port Blair flight via Kolkata on 30 September. And Vistara has made the route announcement long back on 23 June and IndiGo has followed it up and opened the reservations on 29 August barely a month ago from launch. This would be the first time when IndiGo has closely followed up Vistara network growth as so far it had chased the other new joint venture airline of Tata, AirAsia India. 

Underserved Route: Kolkata-Pune

Kolkata and Pune, the two major cities of the East and West India, are served by the fifth busiest and ninth busiest airports in India respectively. But the direct air connectivity between Kolkata and Pune is not yet fully developed as only one daily non-stop flight and three one-stop direct flights are operational on the route as of date. In fact Kolkata is the only metro city which receives just one daily non-stop flight from Pune. Still a rapid increase has been experienced in the demand of air travel between the two cities in recent times. In May 2016, a total of 19,323 O&D passengers (two-way) have traveled between Kolkata and Pune, reporting a 26% growth from almost a year ago.

Analysis: Bengaluru-Guwahati direct flight

The prospect of new direct flight between Bengaluru, the leading metropolis of South India and Guwahati, the hub of entire North East India, has never been so bright. As a rapid increase has been experienced in the demand of air travel between the two cities in recent times. In fact Bengaluru is the fourth busiest domestic route from Guwahati. In May 2016, a total of 17,223 O&D passengers (two-way) have traveled between Bengaluru and Guwahati which is more than double the number of passengers traveled almost a year ago. The flight distance between Bengaluru and Guwahati is 2,042 km (1,102 nm) making it one of the longest domestic route in India.

January 2016: Performances of Indian carriers in domestic aviation market

Indian airlines carried total 76.55 lakh (7.65 million) passengers in the domestic sector in January 2016. Continuing its run with above 20% year on year growth rate, the domestic aviation market recorded 22.58% growth in January over the same period a year ahead. While IndiGo maintained its top position in terms of domestic market share, SpiceJet continued to outperform others in terms of load factors with above 90% PLF and Vistara topped the on-time performance charts in January 2016; Among the other notable highlights, Vistara has registered 900% MoM growth in its January passengers figure and SpiceJet regained its million monthly passengers figure after a gap of 14 months.

IndiGo recorded almost 20% MoM growth in its January passenger numbers but could not beat its best ever performance in May 2015 when it carried record 27.69 lakh passengers despite adding capacity and new routes in the meantime. While Jet Airways and Air India came at second and third position respectively, recorded moderate growth in passengers numbers over that of January 2015; SpiceJet recorded the highest MoM growth in passenger numbers, carried 10.11 lakh passengers compared to 5.87 lakh in January 2015, immediately after the December 2014 crisis. It has also regained more than million monthly passengers after a gap of 14 months, it had recorded million monthly passengers last time in October 2014; GoAir too recorded double digit MoM growth in its January passengers figure.

Among the 'new' carrier Vistara recorded a whopping 900% YoY growth in its monthly passenger numbers, while AirAsia India too achieved 116% increase in its monthly passenger numbers in January 2016 compared to that of January 2015; Air Costa was the only airline which actually registered a negative growth in its passenger numbers which saw 9.2% YoY decrease in its January 2016 passenger figures. Both TruJet and Air Pegasus had not commenced their operation in January 2015; 

In January 2016, almost all 'old' airlines, except SpiceJet, have lost market share compared to January 2015; While IndiGo maintained its leadership position with 35.6% market share in January but it is more than 3.0 percentage point down from its lifetime high 38.9% which it had recorded in May 2015; Jet Group as expected came second with 21.4% (combined market share of Jet Airways and Jet Lite) and it has almost maintained the January 2015 market share. But there exists a steady gap of around 15% between No 1 IndiGo and No 2 jet Airways; National carrier Air India continued losing its market share and achieved 16% market share in January which is around 3.0 percentage point down from its January 2015 (18.7%) market share. GoAir achieved 8.1% market share in January 2015 vs 8.9% in January 2015; SpiceJet was the only 'old' airline to have reported a major increase in its market share compared to that a year before. Following the December 2014's financial crisis, SpiceJet's market share fell sharply to 9.4% in January 2015 while it achieved 13.2% in January 2016;
Among the 'new' airlines all airlines have increased their market share except Air Costa. While AirAsia India and Vistara almost maintained their lifetime best market share of December 2015, Air Costa saw a decrease in its market share from 1.0% in January 2015 to 0.8% in January 2016; Two new regional carriers TruJet and Air Pegasus achieved 0.4 and 0.3% market share respectively in January 2016;

As usual Vistara occupied the top position in the OTP chart of January 2016; And it has reported highest OTP for six straight months. But January being peak fog season at its hub Delhi Airport, Vistara's overall OTP was at below 90% for the first time in its 13 months operation. While Jet Airways, IndiGo, SpiceJet all three recorded nearly 75% flights on-time, GoAir and Air India were at the sub 70% level. But AirAsia India came as the worst performing airline in terms of on-time performance and recorded just 56% flights on-time.

SpiceJet has maintained its leadership position in terms of passenger load factor and recorded more than 90% PLF for nine straight months. While all other airlines recorded their PLF between 80 and 85%, Vistara was the only airline to record sub 80% PLF in January 2016 although it has improved a lot from the poor PLF figures of early 2015. Though Vistara could not beat its lifetime high PLF of 77.6% recorded in December 2015, its January 2016 PLF stands at second position in its 13 months operation. All other airlines except Air India, Jet Airways and IndiGo, recorded an increase in their load factors compared to their performance in January 2015;

2015: Domestic vs international capacity of Indian carriers

Indian carriers had carried total 99.48 million passengers in 2015 while 81.09 million passengers flew on domestic routes, the rest 18.39 million were international passengers. Currently almost all the Indian carriers, with exception of Air India Express, are heavily focused on the high growth domestic market which grew at record 20% rate in 2015. It is evident from the above chart that the incumbent Indian carriers are more interested in operating in India rather on international routes. Just have a look at the case of IndiGo, the market leader in terms of annual passengers carried, its international capacity is disproportionately low compared its overall passengers in 2015.

Shandong Airlines to cease Delhi-Kunming flight in end March

In November 2015, East China's Jinan based Shandong Airlines had commenced 4 weekly service to Delhi from Kunming. The airline also provides one-stop connection to its hubs in Jinan and Qingdao from Delhi via Kunming. It operates 167 seats Boeing 737-800 aircraft on the 2,574 km Delhi-Kunming route. Kunming, the capital of South-west China's Yunan province, is a major commercial center and the Changshui International Airport is major hub for short-haul international flights to South and South-east Asia. Kunming also one of the nearest Chinese major city from India and a direct flight from Delhi was much awaited. Shandong Airlines's service launch on Delhi-Kunming route in November 2015 therefore was very welcome development which also provides Delhi Airport with connectivity to regional China (Jinan, Qingdao) through one-stop flights. But it seems the airline is withdrawing its Delhi service in summer 2016 season as it has closed booking on the route after 25 March 2016; 

Top 10 international routes from Delhi in 2015

Indira Gandhi International Airport in Delhi is the busiest airports in India in terms of passenger traffic. In 2015, it had handled total 45.98 million passengers and out of which 13.88 million passengers used international flights to and from Delhi. As per the DGCA data for international city-pair passengers released in mid February, the following is the list of top 10 busiest international route from Delhi Airport with annual passengers data on respective routes. Interestingly, 5 out of top 10 routes are eastward from Delhi while the other 5 is in westward direction. Three Gulf/West Asian airports, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha are featured in the top 10 list while only two long-haul European destinations London and Frankfurt are in the list. At 816 km from Delhi, Kathmandu is the nearest destination among the top 10 while Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore are the three Southeast Asian destinations in the top 10 list. Hong Kong is the only East Asian destination to be featured in the list.

Revealed: Pattern for 99 & 100th aircraft of IndiGo, to operate one of the longest domestic flight

IndiGo, India's largest carrier by passenger volume, is all set to expand its domestic capacity in the new year.  It has already opened booking for a range of new flights to be operated from second week of January 2016. The new flights include the first non-stop flight between the national capital Delhi and Kerala capital Trivandrum. This is going to be one of the longest domestic flights with great circle distance of 1,201 nautical miles (NM) or 2,224 km and block time of 3 hours 15 minutes. IndiGo is increasing its presence at Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru as it will station one more aircraft there and will operate new frequencies to Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar and Visakhapatnam from Bengaluru.

With the arrival of the new Airbus A320neo (-271N) likely to be delayed at least by January end. IndiGo will operate these new flights with old Airbus A320ceo aircraft currently being dry-leased from various sources and it is evident that IndiGo to have at least 2 more such aircraft by the end of December 2015. With this IndiGo will become only the third airlines in India to have a 100 aircraft fleet after Air India & Jet Airways. Anticipating a potential delay in the A320neo delivery, IndiGo management was already in the process of taking a 11.3 years old A320ceo (MSN: 2275) on dry-lease and now it is learned that another 11 years old A320ceo (MSN: 2359) will also join it's fleet soon. Which is currently being painted in IndiGo colors in Shannon, Ireland. Eventually the airline may take up to 4 such old aircraft on dry-lease. Your author had already indicated before that IndiGo to dry-lease not just 1 more but several old Airbus A320ceo in the coming weeks to fuel its domestic growth till the arrival of A320neo. Currently IndiGo has 98 A320ceo aircraft in its fleet out of which 14 have been inducted old (VT-IDX, X=A-N). The upcoming aircraft will likely to be registered with VT-IDO onward.

The 99th aircraft, to be based at Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru, will operate the BLR-VTZ-BLR-AMD-BLR-BBI-CCU-BBI-BLR pattern from 7 January 2016. Overall the aircraft will clock a block time of 13 hours 30 minutes with 8 flights a day. This will help IndiGo to increase daily departures from Bengaluru from current 31 to 34.

The most important feature of this pattern is the first non-stop flight between Delhi and Trivandrum, one of the longest domestic flights. No other airline operates non-stop flight on this route. However it is not yet clear where the aircraft will be stationed at night or it will operate late night/early morning flight, better known as red-eye flight. The partial pattern, known by the time of writing this piece, includes MAA-TRV-DEL-TRV-MAA effective from 7 January 2016. The airline is expected to open booking for 1 or 2 more rotation within this pattern.  

What if '5/20' rule goes tomorrow?

VT-TTB, the first A320 aircraft of Vistara at Delhi Airport.

The so called '5/20' rule which restricts Indian airlines with less than 5 years of domestic flying experience and a fleet size of less than 20 from flying on international routes, was introduced in 2004, close to the arrival of low-cost carriers (LCC) in India. It was meant to protect the then incumbent players like Air India, Air Sahara, Jet Airways from the potential competition from new entrants like Air Deccan, Kingfisher Airlines, SpiceJet and others. On October 30, the Ministry of civil aviation (MoCA), the nodal ministry on aviation has released a draft policy called 'National civil aviation policy 2015' (NCAP 2015). And the MoCA is expected to come up with the final aviation policy by the year end. One of the proposals on the draft policy includes revision of '5/20' rule, either partial or complete removal of it. Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA), the lobbying group consisting Jet Airways, SpiceJet, IndiGo and GoAir, is actively opposing any relaxation in the '5/20' rule.