The Curious Case of Kolkata-Europe direct flight

Currently Kolkata airport lacks any direct link to Europe, so people travelling to European destinations have to fly via Delhi, Mumbai or Middle East hubs. Even smaller cities like Ahmedabad and Amritsar have direct flight to London and Birmingham via Mumbai and Delhi respectively owing to much larger diaspora from Gujarat and Punjab compared to that of Bengal. Kolkata's long-haul international market heavily depends on visiting friends and relatives (VFR) traffic which is often price sensitive therefore a sizable demand for economy-class seats exist but premier class (business-class or higher) demand remains low on European routes.
The state government is keen to re-instead Kolkata's direct link to Europe and has taken several measures to lure airlines including offer of a tax holiday on ATF for airlines to launch Europe flight. The silver lining for Kolkata is that in 2015 Wolfgang Will, the South Asia director of Lufthansa had indicated that his airline may consider resuming Kolkata flight with fuel efficient Airbus A350-900 (without any first-class) in coming years. Turkish Airlines is keen to start direct flight to Istanbul from Kolkata, the move is stuck by the limitation of seat entitlements and point of calls in India the carrier has right now. 

Global economic crisis from 2008 onward had taken its toll on Kolkata airports long-haul international network. Lack of business sentiments and rising oil prices had made Kolkata-Europe direct flights economically unviable. British Airways which used to fly non-stop service to London-Heathrow airport chose to withdraw from Kolkata market in March 2009. Lufthansa, the last remaining European connection had also decided to stop Kolkata-Frankfurt non-stop flight in April 2012. Both the carrier had cited low yields on the premier classes (first class & business class) as the reason behind their withdrawal decision while passenger loads on the economy class remained moderate. Lufthansa's departure from the city, which was ironically the first stop of the airline in South Asia, was a major blow to the international connectivity of Kolkata airport which lacks direct flight beyond Asia. The situation became even worse with the arrival of Gulf carriers in the Kolkata market.

In the absence of any non-stop flight to Europe and US, Gulf carriers (MEB3) over the years have captured the west bound long-haul traffic from Kolkata providing them convenient one-stop connections on their vast European and North American network. Emirates, the largest carrier among MEB3, operates double daily flights to Kolkata. It used to operate a combination of Boeing 777 and Airbus A330 aircraft until late March 2016 when the carrier chose to upgauge Kolkata flight with larger Boeing 777-300ER aircraft. In December 2015, Qatar Airways had replaced its daily Airbus A320 service with Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner. The 76% increase in seat capacity had resulted into a 65% rise in the passenger volume in Q1-2016. Abu Dhabi based Etihad Airways still deploys narrowbody aircraft to Kolkata but it has recorded the maximum QoQ passenger growth as the airline had commenced daily Airbus A320 service only in mid February 2015 therefore full quarter passenger numbers of Q1-2015 not available. Though a sizable O&D passengers exist between Kolkata and the Gulf countries but a good share of those passengers carried by MEB3 known to make onward travel on MEB3's vast European and North American network.

Recently a buzz about a prospective 'direct flight' from Kolkata to London has been created by a media report. The term 'direct flight' can sometimes be confusing as a 'direct flight' is not necessarily always a non-stop flight. A flight even with multiple stops can be called a 'direct flight' if it is operated on the same aircraft and with same flight number. A non-stop Kolkata-London flight by Air India is not going to happen at the moment, apart from reasons cited above the scarcity of landing slot at London-Heathrow airport, world busiest two-runway airport and near saturation, would make a all new flight to London unlikely. Rather a one-stop Kolkata-Delhi-London flight is much more feasible on the lines of Air India's present Ahmedabad-Mumbai-London or Amritsar-Delhi-Birmingham flights. Currently Air India operates double daily Boeing 787-8 service on the Delhi-Kolkata sector along with other narrowbody services. Therefore re-branding of Air India's flight AI 21 and AI 111 as a single flight (same aircraft, same flight number) in London direction and of flight AI 112 and AI 20 as another single flight in Kolkata direction would allow Kolkata to have a direct link (one-stop) to Europe.

Kolkata-Delhi schedule

Flight No	Origin: Departure	Destinations: Arrival	Aircraft
AI 401	Delhi: 07:00	Kolkata: 09:10	787-8
AI 20	Delhi: 14:25	Kolkata: 16:35	787-8
AI 21	Kolkata: 10:00	Delhi: 12:15	787-8
AI 701	Kolkata: 17:30	Delhi: 19:50	787-8

Delhi-London schedule

Flight No	Origin: Departure	Destinations: Arrival	Aircraft
AI 161	Delhi: 02:30	London: 07:30	787-8
AI 111	Delhi: 14:00	London: 19:00	777-200LR*
AI 162	London: 09:45	Delhi: 22:50	787-8
AI 112	London: 21:30	Delhi: 10:40+1	777-200LR*

Air India has recently rejigged its London operation effective 15 August 2016. It is believed that Air India's afternoon frequency AI 111/AI 112 which is currently being operated on Boeing 777-200LR would shift on Boeing 787-8 in the coming months and the freed-up B77L to be deployed on its prospective Delhi-Washington route. Therefore operating Kolkata-Delhi-London sector on Boeing 787-8 (same aircraft) with same flight number becomes doable for Air India. In fact the same stands for Frankfurt as well with Air India's Delhi-Frankfurt flight schedule being similar to that of Delhi-London afternoon flight. Frankfurt being a Star Alliance (Lufthansa) hub gives Air India more choices of onward destinations (code share) across Europe.