Regional Connectivity: Aviation's next big frontier

This article was first published on Mukherjee's LinkedIn profile.

With big metro airports getting increasingly saturated, it pose a threat to derail the hyper growth (above 20%) that the Indian airline industry currently experiencing. For long air travel in India has remained restricted primarily between metro cities with few key inter-metro routes occupying the lion-share of airlines capacity for example the Delhi-Mumbai and it is the world's sixth largest domestic sector in terms of deployed capacity in 2016. This time government is right in its emphasis on tier-2, tier-3 cities where the next round of growth would come from. India's smaller cities have so far remained neglected with very little connectivity that too mostly to nearby state capitals, now with new unconventional routes between tier-2 and tier-3 cities being opened up it would write a new chapter in India's aviation growth story.

September 2016: Performance of Indian carriers in domestic aviation market

Airlines in India together carried a total of 82.30 lakh (8.23 million) passengers in the domestic sector in September 2016. Continuing its dream run with above 20% year on year growth rate, the domestic aviation sector had handled 726.98 lakh passengers with 23.17% YoY growth during first nine month (January-September) of 2016 over the same period a year ago. While the MoM growth rate for the month of August was at 23.46%. Going by the passenger growth trend of the first three quarters of 2016 and the planned capacity expansion during the fourth quarter of 2016 (LCCs like IndiGo, GoAir and FSC like Vistara), it remains only matter of time that domestic aviation sector in India to record 100 million annual passenger for the first time in 2016. 

Vistara starts Bengaluru and Guwahati flights from Kolkata

Today the Tata Singapore Airlines joint venture full service carrier, Vistara has commenced two new routes from Kolkata to Bengaluru and Guwahati and thus providing one-stop direct flight connection between Bengaluru and Guwahati via Kolkata. The airline is now operating over 500 weekly flights in a network of 44  routes across 18 destinations. With the launch of Bengaluru and Guwahati routes from Kolkata today, Kolkata comes at per with Mumbai in Vistara's network with four non-stop routes and ranks third in terms of overall operations with seven daily departures following Delhi and Mumbai. Vistara currently has a fleet of 13 Airbus A320-232 aircraft out of which it stations two in Kolkata, one each in Bengaluru and Mumbai while the rest nine are based in its Delhi hub. 

Jet Airways moves further close to SkyTeam

India's largest carrier by international passenger traffic, Jet Airways is showing some development in its long haul network. The airline is upgauging existing Europe capacity by deploying Boeing 777-300ER. Better financial performance over the last few quarters fueled by softening of oil prices is believed to be prompting Jet Airways to expand long-haul capacity after really long time. The airline is taking back six Boeing 777-300ER from Etihad following lease expiry between August and November this year. In March this year, Jet Airways had moved its European scissor hub from Brussels to Amsterdam and entered into extensive codeshare partnership with three SkyTeam members Air France-KLM and Delta on European and trans-Atlantic routes. Now this partnership is being extended through Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport. These moves are bringing Jet Airways really close to SkyTeam airline alliance. Jet already share close partnership with major SkyTeam members like Alitalia, Garuda Indonesia, Kenya Airways, Korean Air and Vietnam Airlines. Now, this will be interesting to see whether Jet moves further close to SkyTeam and outright joins the alliance in near future.

Jet Airways upgauges Europe capacity

India's largest carrier by international passenger traffic Jet Airways is all set to upgauge its Europe capacity. The airline has scheduled to deploy the huge Boeing 777-300ER on the Mumbai-Amsterdam route replacing the current Airbus A330-300 from winter schedule effective from 30 October 2016. 

Air Canada expands India operations with flights to Mumbai

Air Canada had long attempted to set a foothold in Indian market since its first arrival in mid 1980s. But the earlier services were frequently halted due to poor economics of legacy long range aircraft before it has finally developed its niche with the introduction fuel efficient Boeing 787 Dreamliner service on routes to India, one of the largest immigrant countries of Canada. The airline which had earlier operated one-stop fifth freedom flights via European gateways like London Heathrow and then Zurich, had launched the non-stop Toronto-Delhi flight in November last year. Following that in April 2016 it went on to launch seasonal service (October to May) between Vancouver and Delhi and now announces Toronto-Mumbai flight from July next year. 

SpiceJet commences Q400 operations from Kolkata

SpiceJet, the second largest low-cost carrier of India has commenced turbo-prop operations from Kolkata. The Eastern metropolitan city becomes fourth base for the LCC's Bombardier Q400 fleet following Delhi, Chennai and Hyderabad. As many as three such aircraft are being stationed in Kolkata which will initially operate to six routes from the city. The airline is adding three new destinations Aizawl, Gorakhpur and Silchar from 4 October 2016 taking the network size to 39 cities in India. While Aizawl, Gorakhpur and Vizag would be complete new route for SpiceJet from Kolkata, Bagdogra and Guwahati are two routes where it already run flights with mainline jets. With these SpiceJet is scaling up its network in Northeast India where its presence was so far limited to Agartala, Bagdogra and Guwahati. The flights to Aizawal and Silchar will further continue up to Guwahati before heading back to Kolkata via those airports therefore adding new CAT-II and CAT-IIA capacity. This is in line with the Government of India's policy of promoting regional connectivity. 

IndiGo arrives in Port Blair, its 41st destination

In a first, IndiGo goes beyond the mainland India in ten years of its 'domestic' operations. The airline launches Port Blair as its 41st destinations which is also its 36th station in India. In a typical IndiGo way, it is adding multiple frequencies and at least two non-stop destinations from the new station. Daily Delhi-Port Blair flight via Kolkata from today and daily Hyderabad-Port Blair flight via Chennai from 30 September are being introduced. Interestingly the Tata Singapore Airlines joint venture full service carrier Vistara too is scheduled to launch Delhi-Port Blair flight via Kolkata on 30 September. And Vistara has made the route announcement long back on 23 June and IndiGo has followed it up and opened the reservations on 29 August barely a month ago from launch. This would be the first time when IndiGo has closely followed up Vistara network growth as so far it had chased the other new joint venture airline of Tata, AirAsia India. 

Hola Madrid: Air India launches Spain flight from December

"Hola Madrid" says Maharaja, the Air India mascot. Starting 1 December 2016 the Indian flag carrier launches three weekly flight to the Spanish capital from its Delhi airport hub. The airline will deploy its 256 seater (18J, 218Y) Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner on the 7,262 km (3,921 nm) Delhi-Madrid route. Madrid becomes the ninth destination in Air India's burgeoning European network. The Star Alliance member airline is yet to make a formal announcement of the launch and reservations for the flight has not yet opened on Air India's official websites or on online travel agents though the schedule has already been filed and Google flights started showing the non-stop flight. For a long time Spain has remained one of the largest untapped market in Western Europe with both Barcelona and Madrid among the largest unserved routes from Delhi. Earlier Air India was also known to be contemplating a Delhi-Madrid-Barcelona-Delhi triangular flight. But having failed triangular flights earlier in Australia and Italy market, Air India has finally decided to go for solo Madrid flight as it as indicated in this blog before.

August 2016: Performance of Indian carriers in domestic aviation market

Airlines in India together carried a total of 83.81 lakh (8.38 million) passengers in the domestic sector in August 2016. Continuing its dream run with above 20% year on year growth rate, the domestic aviation sector had handled 644.68 lakh passengers with 23.14% YoY growth during first six month (January-August) of 2016 over the same period a year ago. While the MoM growth rate for the month of August was at 23.98%. Going by the passenger growth trend of the first half of 2016 and the planned capacity expansion during the second half of 2016 (LCCs like IndiGo, GoAir and FSC like Vistara), it remains only matter of time that domestic aviation sector in India to record 100 million annual passenger for the first time in 2016. While IndiGo maintained and further consolidated its top position in terms of domestic market share SpiceJet continued to outperform others in terms of load factors with above 90% PLF for 15 straight months. But in the on-time performance charts, Vistara has once again slipped to second position with IndiGo claiming the top position where it used to be before the arrival of Vistara.

Saudia changes India operations in W16

In the upcoming winter 2016-17 schedule effective from 30 October 2016, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Saudia  making major changes in its Indian operations. This includes dropping Dammam-Bengaluru sector while other routes see capacity augmentation. The airline increasing Jeddah flight frequencies from Delhi and Mumbai and Riyadh flight frequencies from Bengaluru, Delhi and Mumbai. While Hyderabad flights see operating aircraft being upgauged from Airbus A330-300 to Boeing 777-200ER to both Jeddah and Riyadh. 

July 2016: Performance of Indian carriers in domestic aviation market

Airlines in India together carried a total of 85.08 lakh (8.58 million) passengers in the domestic sector in July 2016. Continuing its dream run with above 20% year on year growth rate, the domestic aviation sector had handled 560.87 lakh passengers with 23.01% YoY growth during first six month (January-July) of 2016 over the same period a year ago. While the MoM growth rate for the month of July was at 25.82%. Going by the passenger growth trend of the first half of 2016 and the planned capacity expansion during the second half of 2016 (LCCs like IndiGo, GoAir and FSC like Vistara), it remains only matter of time that domestic aviation sector in India to record 100 million annual passenger for the first time in 2016. While IndiGo maintained and further consolidated its top position in terms of domestic market share SpiceJet continued to outperform others in terms of load factors with above 90% PLF for 15 straight months and Vistara once again occupied the top position in the on-time performance charts.

Air India rejigs UK, USA services from Today

Today Air India's Boeing 787-8 fleet making its US debut with inaugural Ahmedabad-London-Newark flight. Air India has also resumed its transatlantic fifth freedom flights between London and Newark. Delhi loses one of the seven flights to London (three by Air India) at the cost of Ahmedabad's own four weekly non-stop flight to London. 

Vistara grows two fold in Delhi, 7 new destinations in last 12 months

Vistara has increased monthly departures from its hub Delhi Airport to almost double (93% growth MoM) in August 2016. While Guwahati sees the biggest MoM increase in its monthly departures with first non-stop flight to Delhi added in mid-June 2016. The airline has added seven new destinations to its network in the last one year. And two more destinations are expected to be added by the year end and hopefully early in the winter 2016 schedule. Among the two new destinations to be added, Amritsar is believed to be a front runner while the other one most likely to be a short distance North Indian route from Delhi (CAT-III). Delhi being its hub, clearly leading with 16 direct routes followed by Mumbai (4), Bengaluru (2), Goa (2), Guwahati (2), Kochi (2), Srinagar (2) while all other 10 stations are served by only one route each. Vistara is expected to launch Bengaluru-Kolkata flight, the third non-stop route from Bengaluru while the number of non-stop routes from Kolkata to be increased to four by October 2016. Port Blair (18th destination in the network), the second route from Kolkata is scheduled from 30 September 2016.

June 2016: Performance of Indian carriers in domestic aviation market

Airlines in India together carried a total of 79.75 lakh (7.97 million) passengers in the domestic sector in June 2016. Continuing its dream run with above 20% year on year growth rate, the domestic aviation sector had handled 475.79 lakh passengers with 22.87% YoY growth during first six month (January-June) of 2016 over the same period a year ago. While the MoM growth rate for the month of June was at 21.63%. Going by the passenger growth trend of the first half of 2016 and the planned capacity expansion during the second half of 2016 (LCCs like IndiGo, GoAir and FSC like Vistara), it remains only matter of time that domestic aviation sector in India to record 100 million annual passenger for the first time in 2016. While IndiGo maintained and further consolidated its top position in terms of domestic market share SpiceJet continued to outperform others in terms of load factors with above 90% PLF for 14 straight months and Vistara once again occupied the top position in the on-time performance charts.

Welcome Air Carnival, India's fourth regional airline

The southern sky turns pink today with the launch of Air Carnival. The Coimbatore based new regional airline just commences its commercial operations with its inaugural flight took off from Coimbatore Airport at 7:30 am and landed at Chennai Airport around around 9:00 am then it flew onward to Madurai. India Aviation Forum welcomes the new entrant and wishes best for its future. Air Carnival (IATA code: 2S), promoted by the Coimbatore based CMC group, becomes India's 14th carrier (with active AOP) and fourth regional carrier following Air Costa, Air Pegasus and TruJet. Notably, all four regional carrier are based in South India and Chennai is common in all four network. This highlights the prospect of Govt's regional connectivity scheme in the recently launched national civil aviation policy 2016. 

Focus on CAT-II, IIA & III routes in Vistara's initial summer schedule

On 8 March 2016, Vistara has revealed its initial summer 2016 schedule which proposes to take the number weekly flights to almost 400 from the current level of 317, a 26% rise effective from 27 March 2016; The schedule also adds 3 new destinations namely, Jammu, Kochi and Srinagar in the network. The airline launches new destinations like Jammu and Srinagar, located north of Delhi for the first time in its 15 months of operational history which is going to help it implementing the hub-spoke model better out of its Delhi Airport hub.

Revealed: Pattern for 99 & 100th aircraft of IndiGo, to operate one of the longest domestic flight

IndiGo, India's largest carrier by passenger volume, is all set to expand its domestic capacity in the new year.  It has already opened booking for a range of new flights to be operated from second week of January 2016. The new flights include the first non-stop flight between the national capital Delhi and Kerala capital Trivandrum. This is going to be one of the longest domestic flights with great circle distance of 1,201 nautical miles (NM) or 2,224 km and block time of 3 hours 15 minutes. IndiGo is increasing its presence at Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru as it will station one more aircraft there and will operate new frequencies to Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar and Visakhapatnam from Bengaluru.

With the arrival of the new Airbus A320neo (-271N) likely to be delayed at least by January end. IndiGo will operate these new flights with old Airbus A320ceo aircraft currently being dry-leased from various sources and it is evident that IndiGo to have at least 2 more such aircraft by the end of December 2015. With this IndiGo will become only the third airlines in India to have a 100 aircraft fleet after Air India & Jet Airways. Anticipating a potential delay in the A320neo delivery, IndiGo management was already in the process of taking a 11.3 years old A320ceo (MSN: 2275) on dry-lease and now it is learned that another 11 years old A320ceo (MSN: 2359) will also join it's fleet soon. Which is currently being painted in IndiGo colors in Shannon, Ireland. Eventually the airline may take up to 4 such old aircraft on dry-lease. Your author had already indicated before that IndiGo to dry-lease not just 1 more but several old Airbus A320ceo in the coming weeks to fuel its domestic growth till the arrival of A320neo. Currently IndiGo has 98 A320ceo aircraft in its fleet out of which 14 have been inducted old (VT-IDX, X=A-N). The upcoming aircraft will likely to be registered with VT-IDO onward.

The 99th aircraft, to be based at Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru, will operate the BLR-VTZ-BLR-AMD-BLR-BBI-CCU-BBI-BLR pattern from 7 January 2016. Overall the aircraft will clock a block time of 13 hours 30 minutes with 8 flights a day. This will help IndiGo to increase daily departures from Bengaluru from current 31 to 34.

The most important feature of this pattern is the first non-stop flight between Delhi and Trivandrum, one of the longest domestic flights. No other airline operates non-stop flight on this route. However it is not yet clear where the aircraft will be stationed at night or it will operate late night/early morning flight, better known as red-eye flight. The partial pattern, known by the time of writing this piece, includes MAA-TRV-DEL-TRV-MAA effective from 7 January 2016. The airline is expected to open booking for 1 or 2 more rotation within this pattern.  

Vistara: Fast fleet expansion, route development lags

VT-TTB, Vistara first A320-232 aircraft at Delhi Airport

Vistara, the countries latest full-service carrier is a joint-venture (51:49) between Tata Group and Singapore Airlines. The airline had commenced its operation on 9 January 2015. The airline has a robust fleet expansion program which stands at 9 even before it completes 1 year of operation. It has a network of 12 destinations and serves 25 routes as of today. Vistara has so far carried 7.72 Lakh passengers in the first 10 months and crossed the 1 Lakh monthly passengers mark for the first time in October. And the airline is expected to cross the milestone of flying the first million passengers by the end of the year, which is also well within its 1 year of operation. Here we will discuss how the airline so far performed in terms of its aircraft utilization and route development and whether it is able to maintain pace with its fast fleet expansion to have a maximum utilization of those capacity?

Vistara to achieve the milestone of one million passengers by 2015 end?

VT-TTB, the first A320 aircraft of Vistara at Delhi Airport.

Vistara, the joint venture airline between Tata group and Singapore Airlines, is the newest full service carrier in India. Starting scheduled flight services on 9 January 2015 the airline had already crossed the milestone of flying 5 lakh* (0.5 million) passengers on 20 August 2015, just over seven months into operations. Now it will be interesting to see whether Vistara can achieve the first one million passengers mark by the end of 2015 or by the first year of its operations. Almost a year back the airline had started with a fleet of only two aircraft and launched operations to only three destinations initially. Then the airline has experienced a rapid growth as it gradually increased its fleet size to eight as of today and almost added a new destination a month into its network. Currently, Vistara serves twelve destinations across India distributed among Tier-I, Tier-II and Tier-III cities as per ministry of civil aviation's (MoCA) route dispersal guidelines. The twelve cities are Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Goa, Hyderabad, Guwahati, Bagdogra, Pune, Lucknow, Bangalore, Bhubaneswar and Varanasi in the chronology of those being included into the network.